Will Bitcoin keep dropping because of the ETFs?


The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a spate of Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 10, leading to speculation about how markets might react in the weeks ahead.

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to $49,000 in the hours following the announcement before sinking to just more than $43,000 as of Jan. 12 — impulsive moves that perhaps few observers found surprising. Yet, with Bitcoin’s halving set to occur in April, there is little agreement about what might happen next.

For some analysis, we asked some Cointelegraph staffers and authors for their thoughts. (Keep in mind that the last time we asked for predictions, some were off by up to five figures — so don’t consider this investment advice unless you’re looking for tips to lose money.) 

Cointelegraph: The ETF approvals are behind us. When January ends, will we look back on this as a “buy the news” or “sell the news” event?

Tom Blackstone, reporter:

The price of Bitcoin ended up barely breaking through resistance by Dec. 31, ending at $42,265. That’s $2,265 above the upper range of where I thought it would be a few months ago, so my prediction was off a bit.

Related: This is why Bitcoin won’t crash 30% after the ETF decision

History shows that halving years show very high price increases compared to the years before them, So I expect Bitcoin to be much higher by the end of this year, though June would be much too soon for a rally to come. By the end of the year, I expect it to hit a new all-time high. I don’t think the ETF news will have much of an effect beyond the first two months or so after the decision is made.

CT: Where do you think the price of Bitcoin will stand on June 30?

TB: I think it will be above $47,000.

Lucas Kiely, chief investment officer at Yield App:

We may see some “sell-the-news” action, but only from some short-term traders. The HODLers are not selling — and certainly not before Bitcoin’s halving, which has been the catalyst for a huge rally every single time in the past. The number of long-term holders sits at around 76%, which is higher than at any other point in its history.

We will see a minor pullback, but it’ll be nothing to write home about. It may take a little while for it to surpass the $50,000 threshold. But by June, the halving will be out of the way, and the price should be higher. The magnitude will depend on many factors, of course, not least the macroeconomic backdrop. We also know it usually takes time for the halving to impact the price, so we may need to be a little patient in waiting for a new all-time high.

BTC price prediction for June 30? By the end of June, I expect Bitcoin to sit somewhere between $50,000 and $60,000.

Christos Makridis, associate research professor at ASU and founder/CEO of Dynamic AI:

The Bitcoin ETF is a big step for prices of digital assets — even beyond BTC — for this year. Beyond the growing institutional recognition and adoption of digital assets, we are likely to see an even further increase in economic and political uncertainty. At least historically, there is a strong negative correlation between uncertainty and the price of both BTC and ETH, which will likely get amplified during the election cycle of 2024. Current price momentum for digital assets are likely to continue and people will look to them as a haven in the midst of uncertainty and active central bank and federal decision-making, further driving their appreciation in price.

BTC Price on June. 30? I wouldn’t be surprised if BTC passes $50,000.

Ray Salmond, head of markets:

Bitcoin’s long-term price action is likely to be influenced by the size and consistency of inflows to the ETFs, and the corresponding reports at the end of the first and second quarters.

It will be interesting to see how institutions reposition their portfolio allocations to BTC and what sort of consumer and retail products emerge over the coming year. In the short term, attention is likely to pivot back toward Bitcoin’s halving in April, and the impact this has historically had on price.

Personally, I’d be content with seeing Bitcoin consolidate in the $50,000 to $56,000 price range for the next two or so months. Eventually flipping $58,000 to support and gaining further strength going into the halving would be great.

BTC Price on June. 30? Between $55,500 and $69,420, but there are too many factors that can’t be considered that could occur.

Daniele Servadei, founder and CEO of Sellix:

It’s inevitable that Bitcoin will surge beyond $100,000, driven by an influx of retail investors. This marks a pivotal moment for Bitcoin as it not only simplifies the investment process by eliminating the need for direct dealings with cryptocurrency exchanges but also signifies a major leap towards mainstream acceptance and regulatory clarity in the United States. (Ethereum, on the other hand, may not mirror Bitcoin’s ascent.)

BTC Price on June. 30? $140,000

Rudy Takala, editor:

The top of Bitcoin’s range was set at $49,000 when the ETFs launched. Once we establish a post-ETF bottom, I would assume we’ll see it trade in an increasingly constricted range until it’s ready to break out — possibly making it safer to short the higher end of that range until that happens. That will be particularly true if market mania continues shifting to Ethereum.

Related: What will Bitcoin do if the Justice Department takes aim at Binance?

In 2020 — the last halving year — Bitcoin’s price increased 500%, and then it obviously doubled in 2021. The same pattern this year would put the year-end price somewhere above $200,000. That seems absurd at the moment, and the difference in market capitalization compared to 2020 would be equally absurd. But it does look bullish for the year.

BTC Price on June. 30? Above $47,000.

J.W. Verret, associate professor at George Mason Law School

I won’t sell the news because the only rational way to invest in Bitcoin is to think in five to 20 year horizons. Over that horizon, the “to the moon” meme is reasonable. In a short horizon, I don’t have real-world usage numbers to work with because there isn’t much. Short-term price predictions are just guesses about how many fellow speculators want to jump into the pool with me in the next six months based on no new information.

Long-term, I believe the U.S. dollar has no future, that AI will prefer decentralized money, and that remote work lends itself to crypto incentives. Bitcoin is the best bet right now on that future.

BTC Price on June. 30? If you force me to estimate, I’d say price movement dips during tax season’s regular sell off then continues up past current prices and toward $50,000.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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