JPMorgan says GBTC sell-off ‘behind us’ as ETFs post record net outflow

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Investors are likely done with the bulk of profit-taking from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which could ease pressure on the price of Bitcoin (BTC), according to JPMorgan analysts.

It comes as daily net outflows from United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hit a record high on its ninth day of trading.

“GBTC profit taking has largely happened already,” said the analysts headed by market strategy managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in a Jan. 25 market report. “This would imply that most of the downward pressure on Bitcoin from that channel should be largely behind us.”

Grayscale’s fund has traded at a discount to its net asset value since early 2021 and the analysts pinned the fund’s $4.3 billion outflows since its conversion to an ETF on Jan. 11 as “profit-taking on previous GBTC investments” and the reason for Bitcoin’s nearly 20% price drop to now trade under $40,000 since the launch of multiple U.S. Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin’s price has steadily fallen since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approvals on Jan. 11 Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

JPMorgan’s note comes after the ten approved spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $158 million on Jan. 24, the largest net outflow day since launch, per BitMEX research data shared on social media platform X on Jan. 25.

Grayscale’s ETF saw $429 million in outflows on Jan. 24, while the most recent BitMEX data for Jan. 25 shows outflows dropped to $394 million — its second-lowest outflow day on record.

Related: SEC institutes proceedings on Grayscale spot Ether ETF, pushing deadline

Data for Jan. 24 compiled by X account CC15Capital shows Bitcoin ETF holdings held by all ten funds dropped on the day by 4,610 BTC, worth nearly $184 million.

In their note, JPMorgan analysts’ said BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETF were “emerging competitors” to the GBTC as each have amassed respective assets under management of $1.9 billion and $1.8 billion.

Inflows to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan. 24 were the lowest since launch, with only $66.2 million on the day, while it increased its Bitcoin stash by 1,663 BTC to a current total of nearly 45,700 BTC.

Fidelity’s ETF added 3,170 on Jan. 24, increasing it’s total to 41,319 BTC.

Big Questions: How can Bitcoin payments stage a comeback?