Charles Edwards, X Hall of Flame


Crypto on-chain analyst Charles Edwards, the co-founder of the digital assets hedge fund Capriole Investments, believes now is the perfect time to get “some allocation” into altcoins.

But he says you probably shouldn’t hold onto them for too long.

“If this is a normal four-year cycle, which so far has been playing out like a textbook like the previous cycles, we can expect that Bitcoin will probably top either later this year or next year,” the Australian-based crypto analyst tells Hall of Flame.

“If that happens, and when Bitcoin does enter a bear market like it has done in the past, you definitely don’t want to be holding altcoins from mid-2025 onward,” Edwards declares in an authoritative tone similar to the one he uses with his 104,200 X followers.

“I think that this is the 12-month window you want to own them. Not any other years. Probably not at all in 2026 or 2027.”

In previous bear markets, altcoins have suffered much larger drawdowns compared to Bitcoin.

“It depends on Bitcoin, as [if there is] any kind of major pullback, obviously altcoins are gonna get destroyed. So whenever Bitcoin is down massively, altcoins go down much more,” he explains.

But Edwards plays devil’s advocate with his own prediction, noting that things “could be different” this cycle due to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot Bitcoin ETFs at the start of this year. It’s possible there won’t be an altseason.

“We don’t have anything for altcoins or Ethereum that could be a driving factor. Like if the majority of the flows and demand this cycle is institutional, then maybe altcoins don’t see the same growth,” he says.

When Edwards isn’t busy running his hedge fund, he spends time working on technical analysis about Bitcoin’s price, and spotting trends, which he posts about on X.

“I suppose I noticed the power of Twitter and social media back in 2019, probably during the first six months when I started working,” he says, of a period when the Bitcoin price was around $8,000.

“This was just writing a lot of articles and trying to share as much research as I could and Bitcoin-related strategies on Medium, TradingView and Twitter,” he adds.

(X/Charles Edwards)

Edwards felt like he was getting “into a bit of a rhythm” with consistent posting during an “exciting growth stage” as his account grew from “zero to 10,000” followers, and admits he became a bit lazier after that.

“From there, I was probably not as consistent as I could have been,” he laughs.

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Consistent or not, Edwards must’ve posted enough interesting content to rack up over 100K followers.

“I think if you frequently post good quality content and be consistent in your area and keep doing that you’ll probably grow because it doesn’t matter what nature is if it’s crypto or anything else, there’s gonna be other people interested.”

What type of crypto research content does Charles Edwards produce?

Edwards mainly analyzes all things Bitcoin — from price movements and ETF inflows to things like the cost of electricity per Bitcoin.

“Most of the content revolves around valuation metrics and identifying when Bitcoin is over or undervalued, with the rest a bit of technical analysis related,” he says.

He also posts content on altcoins every now and then for those who are interested.

(X/Charles Edwards)

Edwards discusses the macro market conditions from time to time, although he believes that the crypto community “often finds it boring and it doesn’t get much engagement.”

Regardless, Edwards believes macro plays a big role in Bitcoin markets and plans to keep doing it.

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“It is a big driver of what happens in the Bitcoin ecosystem as well. So I find that data really interesting,” he says.

Who does Charles Edwards follow on Crypto Twitter?

Edwards is a fan of several crypto accounts in the space, mainly those that similarly pick apart the market and identify emerging trends in Bitcoin and other altcoins.

Crypto on-chain analyst Willy Woo and memecoin analyst Murad are two in particular.

(X/Charles Edwards)

Apart from Woo, for on-chain analysis, Edwards is a fan of Reflexivity Research co-founder Will Clemente and fellow Australian analyst James Check, aka “Checkmatey.”

For technical analysis, Edwards believes that pseudonymous crypto trader DonAlt “is probably the best in the space.”

Charles Edwards’ Bitcoin price prediction

Edwards believes that the “two or three-month window” after the April Bitcoin halving is typically pretty volatile, but he has a positive outlook for Bitcoin holders when considering the next twelve months as a whole.

“Zooming out the next 365 days minus a few days, the halving is usually the best risk-reward period for Bitcoin in terms of you usually get strong positive trends with very limited drawdowns,” he explains.

“So base case expectation over the next year for me is a great returning period for Bitcoin,” he predicts.

Two months before the April Bitcoin halving event, he told his followers on X that if the returns matched those following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin could hit $280,000 next year.

(X/Charles Edwards)

Edwards is unsure whether it will be “straight up or consolidation and straight up,” but either way, those holding for the next 12 months are “probably going to do very well.”

Ciaran Lyons

Ciaran Lyons is an Australian crypto journalist. He’s also a standup comedian and has been a radio and TV presenter on Triple J, SBS and The Project.

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