Bitcoin halving in 11 days, here’s how it will impact BTC mining costs

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The Bitcoin (BTC) halving is a crucial milestone event after every 210,000 blocks or nearly four years. The halving event cuts the block reward earned by miners by half.

Thus, apart from an indirect impact on BTC price, the event significantly impacts miners’ behavior as mining costs double, and it costs twice to earn the same amount of BTC reward.

According to data from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the current cost of mining using Antminer S19 XPs will rise from $40,000 to $80,000. The rise in the price of BTC post-halving compensates for the increase in the cost of mining.

CryptoQuant CEO on Bitcoin halving. Source: Ki Young on X

After the May 2020 halving, the profitable price for miners to continue mining rose to above $30,000; however, the price of BTC rose to a new all-time high of $69,000 during the same cycle.

The average Bitcoin mining cost is $49,902, and the current BTC price is above $70,000. After the halving on April 20, the average Bitcoin mining cost will rise above $80,000. Thus, for miners to continue their operations, the BTC price must trade higher than $80,000.

Average Bitcoin mining cost. Source: MacroMicro

Historically, BTC prices have seen a multifold jump in price post-halving. Following the 2012 halving, the price of Bitcoin increased by around 9,000% to $1,162.

Following the 2016 halving, the price of Bitcoin increased by about 4,200% to $19,800. Following the 2020 halving, the price of Bitcoin increased by almost 683% to $69,000.

Related: Bitcoin halving will have to battle with ‘weak time of year’ — Coinbase

Thus, miners have remained profitable despite fears of going out of business post-halving. Halving events also makes several mining machines obsolete as they can’t compete with the high hash power demand.

After each halving, there comes a period when the BTC price remains below the miner’s profitable price. This period is marred by uncertainty and an increased selling of mining rigs, while many small and lone miners often go out of business.

However, as the demand increases amid a declined market supply, the price picks up and often rises higher than the average mining costs for miners.

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