Bitcoin bull cycle is ‘far from over’ thanks to the halving — CryptoQuant research


Over the past 48 hours,Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped 13% from its new all-time high of $73,835 to briefly trade near $60,000. The correction was caused by overheated market conditions in what analysts have christened a “pre-halving retrace” ahead of the Bitcoin halving event that is roughly 30 days away. 

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, a report by CryptoQuant shows that the Bitcoin bull cycle is not over, given the relatively low level of investment flows from new investors and price valuation metrics still below levels seen in past market tops.

The on-chain data analytic firm’s Weekly Crypto Report reveals that 48% of Bitcoin investment is coming from short-term holders. The “bull cycle typically ends with 84%-92% of investment” from these new investors, according to CryptoQuant analysts.

“The Bitcoin bull cycle is still far from over, as shown by the relatively low level of new investment flows.”

Bitcoin realized cap – OTXO age bands percentage. Source: CryptoQuant

The chart above also reveals that this metric has “reached levels similar to mid-2019 (52%) when Bitcoin also experienced a meaningful correction,” something that short-term traders should watch out for.

The CryptoQuant report also revealed that valuation metrics are still below levels consistent with past market tops.

“CryptoQuant P&L Index is still outside a market top zone (red area) and above the index’s 1-year moving average.”

Bitcoin: CryptoQuant profit and loss (PnL) index. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: BTC price dip hits 17.5% as week’s Bitcoin ETF net outflows near $500M

CryptoQuant’s PnL index is made up of three on-chain indicators that show the profitability of Bitcoin. The index has previously indicated that the crypto market will enter a bull cycle in 2024. However, the chart above shows that the current level is slightly below those observed when the market peaked during the 2013, 2017 and 2021 bull runs.

The Bitcoin halving event is now just a month away

Apart from the metrics discussed above, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event is a major driver expected to bolster BTC price, ushering in a parabolic uptrend.

According to CoinMarketCap’s halving countdown, Bitcoin’s next halving event is less than 31 days away.

Bitcoin halving countdown. Source: CoinMarketcap

With approximately 4,450 blocks to go, the estimated time remaining would see Bitcoin’s fourth halving take place on April 20, with the miner block rewards reducing by 50% from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Historically, Bitcoin’s supply halving has been associated with an uptick in BTC’s price. The halving has always preceded a significant bull run in the Bitcoin market.

Standard Chartered Bank has made a bold prediction, raising its forecast for BTC price from $100,000 to $150,000 in 2024.

In an investment note to clients on Monday, March 18, Standard Chartered Bank analysts wrote,

“For 2024, given the sharper-than-expected price gains year-to-date, we now see potential for the price to reach the $150,000 level by year-end, up from our previous estimate of $100,000.”

The bank also predicted that BTC’s price would reach the cycle top of $250,000 in 2025 before settling at around $200,000.

Although the bank’s analysis is not entirely based on the halving event, it draws on the impressive performance of the spot Bitcoin ETFs since they began trading on Jan. 11 and the different dynamics they bring to the market this halving cycle.