3 key Bitcoin price metrics point to new BTC all-time highs in 2024


Bitcoin’s (BTC) upcoming supply halving and its historical price action, increasing inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and bullish technical setup suggest that BTC is on the path to a new all-time high. 

After a fairly bullish year in 2023, 2024 provided approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) a surge in the price of Bitcoin, Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL) and other cryptocurrencies.

As Bitcoin rallied above $50,000, its market capitalization crossed $1 trillion, rising to $1.02 trillion on Feb. 16, reflecting a 118% increase over the last 12 months.

Bitcoin market capitalization (USD). Source: TradingView

The growth has been accompanied by a 110% leap in the price of Bitcoin over the same period.

Halving and historical data back Bitcoin’s potential

Many traders believe that a key factor in BTC’s price action is the upcoming halving event which is less than 70 days away.

Bitcoin’s price action tends to follow a certain cyclical pattern with analysts painting parallels between historical patterns and the current price trajectory. This points to a possible bull cycle similar to those witnessed in the past.

Likewise, BTC’s historical bull runs appear to follow four-year cycles, often triggered by events like Bitcoin halving, which reduces the rate of BTC issuance.

The next halving event is set to happen in mid-April 2024 when the number of BTC rewards issued to miners per block will be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Data shows the halving has been a positive factor for the price of BTC, and bull runs can begin months before the event – as is being witnessed — and continue until BTC price hits a new all-time high.

Crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital explains the “5 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving” with the “Parabolic Uptrend” as the final phase where BTC price grows exponentially reaching new all-time highs.

5 phases of Bitcoin Halving. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Similar sentiment was shared by independent investor Lady of Crypto who projects that Bitcoin’s parabolic uptrend will take 7 to 8 months after halving with BTC breaking all-time highs in November 2024.

Investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors Timothy Peterson agrees, saying,

“Bitcoin will hit $100K by August.”

While some traders believe the 2024 halving will be the most important ever, others believe it may be different this time.

Capital continues to flow into the spot Bitcoin ETFs

Capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to gain momentum. Data from Farside Investors shows that a total of $4.5 billion have come into Bitcoin ETFs just a little over a month since they began trading on Jan. 11.

Bitcoin ETF flows (USD). Source: Farside Investors

While outflows from GBTC were larger than total inflows into the new ETFs at the beginning, this situation has changed, with BlackRock’s IBIT recording one of the most successful ETF launches in history surpassing 100,000 BTC assets under management (AuM) on Feb. 13.

Demand for Bitcoin ETFs accelerated this week, recording an average of $450 million in inflows per day. Feb. 16 saw all spot Bitcoin ETF AuM come to 258,770 BTC – worth about $13.4 billion at current rates.

In comments to Cointelegraph, Head of Marketing and Communications at dYdX Foundation Tristan Dickinson said that “the rapid adoption of Bitcoin ETF” contributed to BTC’s push above $50,000.

Dickinson added,

“This adoption signals the maturity of the sector, solidifying BTC as an asset class similar to gold. With the halving coming up in April it’s increasingly likely that we are starting to see signs of a bullish market.”

Bitcoin’s technical set-up reflects BTC’s bullish potential

Bitcoin’s price chart has formed a rounded bottom chart pattern on the weekly chart. Buyers have possibly set their target on the neckline of the governing chart pattern at $69,220, which coincides with the all-time highs reached in November 2021.

A weekly candlestick close above this level would confirm a bullish breakout from the rounded bottom formation ushering BTC into price discovery.

The relative strength indicator (RSI) for Bitcoin has moved into the overbought zone, edging close to the 80-point mark and reinforcing the bulls’ dominance in the market.

The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) also produced a bullish cross on the weekly chart. This happened in early January when the 100-week EMA crossed above the 200-week EMA.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Trader Aksel Kibar spotted BTC trading in an ascending parallel channel on the weekly chart forecasting a rally to $65,000 and beyond if the price breaks above the channel.